**Code Utilized to Create Matched Samples**

set seed 12345
psmatch2 prerel democracy* lngdp* lnpop* Intrastate_War* interstate_war* keith* civil* islamic* mixed* colonial_binary* INGO_uia* (lag_disap*/lag_kill*/lag_polpris*/lag_tort*), logit neighbor(1) noreplacement caliper(.5)
psmatch2 habcorp democracy* lngdp* lnpop* Intrastate_War* interstate_war* keith* civil* islamic* mixed* colonial_binary* INGO_uia* (lag_disap*/lag_kill*/lag_polpris*/lag_tort*), logit neighbor(1) noreplacement caliper(.5)
psmatch2 speedtri democracy* lngdp* lnpop* Intrastate_War* interstate_war* keith* civil* islamic* mixed* colonial_binary* INGO_uia* (lag_disap*/lag_kill*/lag_polpris*/lag_tort*), logit neighbor(1) noreplacement caliper(.5)
psmatch2 couns democracy* lngdp* lnpop* Intrastate_War* interstate_war* keith* civil* islamic* mixed* colonial_binary* INGO_uia* (lag_disap*/lag_kill*/lag_polpris*/lag_tort*), logit neighbor(1) noreplacement caliper(.5)
	**Note** In generating the matched samples, only one lagged dependent variable is used in each of the matching processes, and the utilized lagged dependent variable is linked with the relevant dependent variable.

pstest democracy lngdp logpop Intrastate_War interstate_war keith civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia (lag_disap/lag_kill/lag_polpris/lag_tort), both

**Main Text**

Table 1 

ologit disap prerel democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_disap if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit disap habcorp democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_disap if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit disap speedtri democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_disap if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit disap couns democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_disap if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)

Table 2

ologit kill prerel democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_kill if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit kill habcorp democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_kill if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit kill speedtri democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_kill if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit kill couns democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_kill if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)

Figure 2

margins, dydx(habcorp) at(democracy=(0) keith=(0) (mean)lngdp (mean)lnpop Intrastate_War=(0) interstate_war=(0) civil=(0) islamic=(0) mixed=(0) colonial_binary=(1) (mean)INGO_uia lag_disap=(2))   
marginsplot, recast(scatter) horizontal ysc(reverse)

margins, dydx(speedtri) at(democracy=(0) keith=(0) (mean)lngdp (mean)lnpop Intrastate_War=(0) interstate_war=(0) civil=(0) islamic=(0) mixed=(0) colonial_binary=(1) (mean)INGO_uia lag_disap=(2))   
marginsplot, recast(scatter) horizontal ysc(reverse)

Figure 3

margins, dydx(prerel) at(democracy=(0) keith=(0) (mean)lngdp (mean)lnpop Intrastate_War=(0) interstate_war=(0) civil=(0) islamic=(0) mixed=(0) colonial_binary=(1) (mean)INGO_uia lag_kill=(2))   
marginsplot, recast(scatter) horizontal ysc(reverse)

margins, dydx(habcorp) at(democracy=(0) keith=(0) (mean)lngdp (mean)lnpop Intrastate_War=(0) interstate_war=(0) civil=(0) islamic=(0) mixed=(0) colonial_binary=(1) (mean)INGO_uia lag_kill=(2))   
marginsplot, recast(scatter) horizontal ysc(reverse)

Table 3

ologit polpris prerel democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_polpris if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit polpris habcorp democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_polpris if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit polpris speedtri democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_polpris if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit polpris couns democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_polpris if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)

Figure 4

margins, dydx(couns) at(democracy=(0) keith=(0) (mean)lngdp (mean)lnpop Intrastate_War=(0) interstate_war=(0) civil=(1) islamic=(0) mixed=(0) colonial_binary=(1) (mean)INGO_uia lag_polpris=(0))   
marginsplot, recast(scatter) horizontal ysc(reverse)

**Online Appendix**

Tables 2 through 16

Section II in the Codebook describes the process by which these tables were constructed.

Table 17

ologit tort prerel democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_tort if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit tort habcorp democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_tort if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit tort speedtri democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_tort if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit tort couns democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_tort if _weight == 1, vce(cluster ccode)

Table 18

ologit disap prerel democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_disap, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit disap habcorp democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_disap, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit disap speedtri democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_disap, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit disap couns democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_disap, vce(cluster ccode)

Table 19

ologit kill prerel democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_kill, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit kill habcorp democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_kill, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit kill speedtri democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_kill, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit kill couns democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_kill, vce(cluster ccode)

Table 20

ologit polpris prerel democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_polpris, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit polpris habcorp democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_polpris, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit polpris speedtri democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_polpris, vce(cluster ccode)
ologit polpris couns democracy keith lngdp lnpop Intrastate_War interstate_war civil islamic mixed colonial_binary INGO_uia lag_polpris, vce(cluster ccode)



